Tomorrows Bushes and Cheneys: Goodbye, Traditional American Democracy?

No human institutions have ever been permanent, and none are likely to be. Even the Roman Empire fell. But converging technologies are making it possible to exercise more power over people than ever before. And they’re making it frighteningly difficult to dislodge leaders who are determined to deepen and retain their power.

Imagine a country led by folks like Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld in, say, 10, 15, 20 years.

Imagine, at their disposal, future-generation Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, remote control, and automated weaponry [9MB download] that permits the U.S. government to engage in warfare at will, with no concern about military casualties. (Imagine how America’s enemies, increasingly unable to attack the U.S. military, will increasingly turn to soft targets here at home -- and how Cheney-like leaders will respond to that.)

Consider how your E-ZPass toll tag and cellphone can already be used to track you (and look east to Great Britain, where RFID-based mass vehicle tracking will soon be trialed, with the U.S. watching closely.

Consider how the President and National Security Agency, now shown that the American people don’t object to massive illegal wiretapping without cause, may liberate themselves to listen to all our electronic communications. (If they aren’t already.) The commitment to freedom against government intrusion seems to be dying -- at least when it comes to government intrusions on the right to public speech, or to unfettered involvement in the political process.

(Of course, the government had better not tell folks that they can’t own machine guns, or that they can’t move to all-white neighborhoods in Idaho. The only intrusions that seem to raise ire are those that impact the society’s most privatized people: individuals who already want no part of the traditional American political process. In today’s America, however, the types of governments most likely to intrude on political freedom are least likely to intrude on those other types of behavior.)

Make the connections about how all the information that’s being captured -- combined with state-of-the-art data mining technologies -- can be used to keep people in line. Especially since tomorrow’s Bushes and Cheneys won’t need to keep everyone in line: they’ll merely need to blackmail the small percentage of citizens who could potentially threaten their power.

Add it up and it feels like we’re coming up on a last chance to preserve our fundamental liberties -- with the odds against those to whom it really matters. Whether you blame it on 9/11 or simple anaesthetized consumerism, something fundamental has changed: the broad middle class that could once be roused against Nixon’s spying and enemies lists simply no longer cares. Our leaders have carefully taken note, and they are acting accordingly.

A footnote: any worried discussion about privacy needs to contend with David Brin’s provocative dissent in The Transparent Society. But Brin himself has raised concerns about “uneven information flows,” noting that they make it possible for the powerful to hold others accountable while refusing to be held accountable themselves. That’s precisely what’s happening. And, with one-party rule across Congress, the Presidency, and increasingly the federal courts, it’s now happening at breakneck speed.